SAG Award: Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite
Wicked – Jonathan Bailey, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Cynthia Erivo, Jeff Goldblum, Ariana Grande, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang & Michelle Yeoh
A big box office hit nominated in this category often wins (Oppenheimer, Black Panther, Hidden Figures).
Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative
Emilia Pérez – Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz & Zoe Saldaña
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The guild has a long history of embracing diversity in this category. But it’s certainly possible that the cast’s prospects have been damaged by the Gascón X (Twitter) scandal, as final voting is open through Feb. 21.
Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote
Anora – Yura Borisov, Mark Eydelshteyn, Karren Karagulian, Mikey Madison, Aleksei Serebryakov & Vache Tovmasyan
It would be a major endorsement if the guild rewards the only nominated cast without a household name.
DGA AWARD: Outstanding Directing—Feature Film
Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet
The filmmaker who had what appears to be the heaviest lift tends to get rewarded by his/her peers.
Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
The guild has shown an undeniable openness to celebrating filmmakers from outside America.
Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote
Conclave -Edward Berger
This would be a harsh reproach of the Academy’s directors branch, which didn’t nominate Berger.
PGA Award: David O. Selznick Achievement Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures
Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
Final voting closed on Jan. 30, the day that the Gascón X scandal broke, so the film’s prospects may not have been impacted with this particular awards body, which last awarded a musical in 2017 (La La Land).
Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative
Wicked – Marc Platt
Nobody cares about a film’s box office performance more than producers, and this film is a giant blockbuster. Plus, Platt previously won as one of the producers of La La Land.
Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote
A Complete Unknown – Fred Berger, Alex Heineman & James Mangold
A win here would signal to Oscar voters that a vote for the Dylan film would not be wasted, given that this is the only other major award determined by a preferential ballot.
WGA Award: Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite
A Complete Unknown – Jay Cocks & James Mangold
Given that fellow adapted screenplay Oscar nominees Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Sing Sing are ineligible with this guild, the path here seems fairly clear for this fan favorite.
Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative
Nickel Boys – Joslyn Barnes & RaMell Ross
The only other Oscar nominee that’s nominated here, it’s a more polarizing adaptation than A Complete Unknown, but a win is not out of the question.
Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote
Dune: Part Two – Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve
The guild could chide the Academy’s writers branch by awarding this film’s script, which the branch declined to even nominate. (Both groups nominated the script for the first Dune.)
WGA Award: Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite
Anora – Sean Baker
Though the guild has never nominated him before this year, Baker is a beloved member of the community, and his film is by far the highest-profile contender in the category.
Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
This is the only nominee in this category besides Anora that also landed an Oscar nom. And the guild has a long history of recognizing actors who also write, from Sacha Baron Cohen to Sarah Polley.
Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote
Civil War – Alex Garland
The WGA could, theoretically, recognize this script by a first-time guild nominee, as something of a statement about the state of the country in the era of Trump 2.0.
This story appeared in the Feb. 5 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
